A popular crypto analyst is using a refined technical analysis metric to plot out where Bitcoin (BTC) is headed as the markets try to recover from a rocky few weeks of trading.
In a new strategy session, Benjamin Cowen tells his 741,000 YouTube subscribers he prefers to use Heikin-Ashi candles when analyzing Bitcoin because the metric tells a more comprehensive story about price action by including data from the preceding two candles.
“The reason we look at Heikin-Ashi candles is because if you don’t and you just look at normal candles where the color of the candle is only dependent on the open and close, it doesn’t tell the same type of story or narrative that really wants to be told. In an uptrend, you will still see red candles, and in a downtrend, you’ll still see green candles.
Heikin-Ashi candles not only account for the open and close, they also account for the high and the low and they are dependent on the candles that come before them. Because of this, it is a more useful way of measuring the momentum of the market and it helps you sort of cut out the noise of all short-term moves back up to the upside.”
Cowen dives into BTC’s chart behavior over the past several bear cycles and suggests investors could see disappointing numbers until this coming fall.
“That’s why I’m saying that people need to be prepared for this bear market to continue dragging on, if history is any indication we recognize that when we’re in a bear market we know that things like the 200-day moving average when they’re starting to hold as resistance, this is a fairly good indicator of in fact a bear market.”
The crypto analyst concludes by highlighting the pattern of back-to-back red candles on 3-month candles over the life of Bitcoin dating back to its inception in 2011.
“Let’s go look at Heikin-Ashi candles on the quarterly. Now this one is very interesting because if you look at quarterly Heikin-Ashis, you can see that there’s one period where we had three in a row, one period where we had four, another period where we had four, and then another one where we had two.
So the average, out of all 13, you divide that by four, a little over three is sort of the average on that. So you could argue that the expected quarters where these are going to stay red would be a little over three, meaning that even next quarter could still come in red.
The funny thing is next quarter could be a green quarter but the Heikin-Ashi could still be red just because it’s carried over from the momentum of the prior quarter as well, so you have to remember that.”
Source: Benjamin Cowen/YouTube
At time of writing, Bitcoin is up 1.58% over the last 24 hours and trading for $30,235.